La cartera de la mujer de Warren Buffet

En el año 2013, Warren Buffet exponía públicamente, en la carta anual de Berkshire Hathaway , cuál creía que era el mejor manera de invertir para los inversores no profesionales.

Como pueden leer en el siguiente fragmento de la carta, Warren Buffet considera que es una buena noticia para todos los inversores que no consideran el estudio de los negocios una prioridad en su vida la existencia de los fondos de bajo coste indexados, es decir, los fondos de gestión pasiva. 

Considera que los negocios de Estados Unidos lo han hecho muy bien en el pasado y lo seguirán haciendo en el futuro. Sin embargo, alerta que no basta únicamente con saber "dónde" invertir, sino que también es muy importante el "cuándo" invertir.  Alertando del elevado riesgo de cometer el error de los principiantes, que acostumbran a invertir en el momento de mayor exuberancia irracional. Recordando la observación de Barton Biggs: " Un mercado alcista es como el sexo. Éste se siente mejor justo antes de acabar"

Por otro lado, Buffet también destaca al importancia de no mantenerse demasiado activo ya que los costes a largo plazo son muy elevados. 

Finalmente, expone que es lo que hará con su dinero el día que él no esté. Por un lado, todas las acciones de Berkshire irán a ciertas organizaciones filantrópicas y, por otro lado, su dinero será entregado a su esposa a la que recomienda que invierta el 10% del efectivo en bonos del gobierno a corto plazo y el 90% en un fondo de muy bajo coste que replique el índice S&P 500, sugiriendo los fondos que ofrece Vanguard. 

El fragmento de la carta:

"Most investors, of course, have not made the study of business prospects a priority in their lives. If wise, they will conclude that they do not know enough about specific businesses to predict their future earning power.

I have good news for these non-professionals: The typical investor doesn’t need this skill. In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th Century, the Dow Jones Industrials index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st Century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial. The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners – neither he nor his “helpers” can do that – but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.

That’s the “what” of investing for the non-professional. The “when” is also important. The main danger is that the timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. (Remember the late Barton Biggs’ observation: “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.”) The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never to sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. Following those rules, the “know-nothing” investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better longterm results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness.

If “investors” frenetically bought and sold farmland to each other, neither the yields nor prices of their crops would be increased. The only consequence of such behavior would be decreases in the overall earnings realized by the farm-owning population because of the substantial costs it would incur as it sought advice and switched properties.

Nevertheless, both individuals and institutions will constantly be urged to be active by those who profit from giving advice or effecting transactions. The resulting frictional costs can be huge and, for investors in aggregate, devoid of benefit. So ignore the chatter, keep your costs minimal, and invest in stocks as you would in a farm.

My money, I should add, is where my mouth is: What I advise here is essentially identical to certain instructions I’ve laid out in my will. One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife’s benefit. (I have to use cash for individual bequests, because all of my Berkshire shares will be fully distributed to certain philanthropic organizations over the ten years following the closing of my estate.) My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers."

Por lo tanto, la respuesta del dónde invertir nuestra mayor parte de nuestros ahorros ya la tenemos. Sin embargo, respondiendo al cuándo, bajo nuestro punto de vista, ahora no es el momento. Hay que esperar al final de la exuberancia irracional, dejar que caigan los mercados y entonces, entrar.